Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Kayla Day vs Iga Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf650c97c6abc23c6d0cc1c2d25ee33d4f0fd6dc314ea686f303627b2a88d7128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iga Swiatekof Kayla Day, Iga Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,646 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kayla Day | 2c | 59,440$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.91 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kayla Day | 9c | 6,612$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.44 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…d726backed Kayla Day | 5c | 3,849$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kayla Day | 1c | 3,657$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0203…c2f7backed Kayla Day | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Kayla Day | 4c | 3,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kayla Day | 4c | 1,635$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…ba75backed Kayla Day | 3c | 1,521$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kayla Day | 4c | 1,215$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Kayla Day | 2c | 1,027$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Kayla Day | 2c | 947.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Kayla Day | 4c | 913.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Kayla Day | 5c | 785.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Kayla Day | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Kayla Day | 3c | 599.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Kayla Day | 13c | 534.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 609 | 43.3%264 W · 345 L | -24.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Kayla Day | 15c | 407.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Kayla Day | 3c | 402.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Kayla Day | 3c | 352.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Kayla Day | 15c | 331.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 128 | 35.2%45 W · 83 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Kayla Day | 9c | 302.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Kayla Day | 5c | 282.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Kayla Day | 5c | 262.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Kayla Day | 10c | 200.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…869abacked Kayla Day | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Kayla Day | 7c | 188.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Kayla Day | 14c | 140.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Kayla Day | 9c | 122.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Kayla Day | 9c | 120.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Kayla Day vs Iga Swiatekthis page
- Kayla Day vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.