Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Lorenzo Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf658a8611df6e2f696fd869f606c65e57aabb131b579eca66cfa698c76f0930b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Perricard, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Musetti | 73c | 2,753$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.37 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Perricard | 39c | 2,407$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Perricard | 27c | 2,260$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.25 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Perricard | 24c | 1,846$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.96 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Musetti | 56c | 1,394$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.36 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Perricard | 14c | 1,330$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Musetti | 77c | 1,100$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Musetti | 66c | 936.03$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.85 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Musetti | 77c | 725.25$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.67 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…58a6backed Musetti | 77c | 618.33$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Perricard | 27c | 568$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Perricard | 29c | 491.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Perricard | 38c | 436.16$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.74 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Musetti | 70c | 407.41$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Perricard | 28c | 358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Perricard | 16c | 270$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Musetti | 68c | 221.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Musetti | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Perricard | 24c | 184.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Perricard | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Musetti | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Musetti | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Musetti | 77c | 130.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Musetti | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Musetti | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Perricard | 29c | 85.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Musetti | 76c | 64.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Musetti | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Musetti | 72c | 30.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Musetti | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Musetti | 74c | 21.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.