Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65ba5e0838c2dba2b571d9ef7df23e779b7d6d8e8ea2d1ad847cc544d4a669f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 77c | 7,999$6,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.77 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 7,573$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 35c | 3,050$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.65 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 77c | 2,166$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.18 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 66c | 555.01$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.7 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 65c | 443.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 9c | 388.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…634ebacked Under | 65c | 177$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…9fe1backed Over | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 34c | 103$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 36c | 97.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 66c | 97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 25c | 77.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 64c | 73.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 66c | 73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Over | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…4313backed Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 66c | 26.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 17.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.