Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43e5f7237af32dcdd0198f52e1c762a7ae1dd7a289d90a53342d807f1232e052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 5,086$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.21 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 21c | 599.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 514.94$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.61 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…ff71backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Under | 56c | 492$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 50c | 299.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.87 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 28c | 199.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 72c | 179.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 40c | 176.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 55c | 137$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Over | 79c | 109$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 80c | 97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Over | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Over | 79c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…843abacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 64c | 39.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…f733backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 78c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…8967backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.