Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6866487566b1d39499c20f0cacb782503243e43e111cbc918b5f19270f69394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 3,353$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.5 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 28c | 574$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.26 | 858 | 47.8%410 W · 448 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Yes | 31c | 516.13$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.13 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 466$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.2 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 399.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.91 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 182.55$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.02 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…eb70backed Yes | 27c | 181.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Yes | 28c | 180.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 152.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 1,575 | 35.2%554 W · 1,021 L | -36.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 124.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 1,656 | 50.8%841 W · 815 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Yes | 31c | 94.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 33c | 89.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 33c | 89.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 33c | 89.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 33c | 89.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 33c | 87.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 18c | 81.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 69c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 44c | 55.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1,084 | 41.5%450 W · 634 L | -39.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 48.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 34c | 42.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 47c | 30.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 55c | 28.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 46c | 24.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 66c | 21.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 757 | 43.7%331 W · 426 L | -35.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.