NBA · resolved market
NBA Preseason: Lakers vs. Warriors
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf694ba533bbe7993d90cfedd3c6899b0c9ac87e390c4668ba7df5bc196ac4987
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Lakers, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Warriors | 69c | 3,770$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.79 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Lakers | 41c | 2,825$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.42 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Lakers | 34c | 1,850$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d35…c1bcbacked Warriors | 59c | 1,843$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ef…974cbacked Warriors | 59c | 1,700$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…be35backed Lakers | 42c | 1,154$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lakers | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Lakers | 17c | 660.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Warriors | 69c | 513.8$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.31 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Warriors | 78c | 201.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Lakers | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Warriors | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 276 | 31.2%86 W · 190 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed Lakers | 43c | 135.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…8027backed Lakers | 51c | 125.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Lakers | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Warriors | 56c | 37.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Warriors | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Lakers | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc8…c2bdbacked Warriors | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.