TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,387 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles52c1,444$751 inWon+$693.121,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels49c1,243$614 inLost-$614.4112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels40c596.1$240 inLost-$239.9911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Los Angeles Angels39c266.29$104 inLost-$103.711,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Baltimore Orioles70c202.34$142 inWon+$60.7779255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Baltimore Orioles65c151.6$99 inWon+$53.0697050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Baltimore Orioles51c80.39$41 inWon+$39.3947549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Baltimore Orioles51c80.39$41 inWon+$39.3954651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Baltimore Orioles64c76.53$49 inWon+$27.2673949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Baltimore Orioles65c75.89$49 inWon+$26.611,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Baltimore Orioles51c64.71$33 inWon+$31.7116144.1%71 W · 90 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Los Angeles Angels40c44$18 inLost-$17.677836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Los Angeles Angels41c30$12 inLost-$12.310253.9%55 W · 47 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels46c25.93$12 inLost-$11.934,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…6e9bbacked Baltimore Orioles54c25.93$14 inWon+$11.934639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c37…44fdbacked Baltimore Orioles64c19.08$12 inWon+$6.873351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.