Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6b247b4f550e525d8f22863cf881a73a6f55e9745586bcd7c59138b8225b4b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 6c | 622$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 2c | 447.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 438.19$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 4c | 339.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 269.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 59c | 254.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 157.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 141.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed Yes | 37c | 131.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 33c | 100.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 33c | 99.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 91.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 84.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 54c | 82.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Yes | 61c | 80.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 42c | 80.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 78.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 78.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 77.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 16c | 75.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 51c | 68.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 64.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 66c | 64.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 62.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 63c | 53.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 50.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…45f8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 48c | 47.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 60c | 44.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 62c | 43.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 64c | 40.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 39.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 35.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 35.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 33.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 58c | 30.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 59c | 30.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 63c | 29.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 29.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 57c | 24.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked No | 65c | 21.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 61c | 21.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 66c | 21.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 76c | 20.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 20.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 68c | 19.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 62c | 18.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 63c | 16.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.