Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6bd43915144a1a3d573026ec71a092925e6782148f15945ef89cd398d7a6263
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sentinelsof Sentinels, Evil Geniuses
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Sentinels | 40c | 2,485$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.3 | 524 | 55.2%289 W · 235 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Evil Geniuses | 63c | 1,411$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Evil Geniuses | 55c | 594.41$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Sentinels | 38c | 396.65$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.92 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Evil Geniuses | 61c | 385.35$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.06 | 558 | 52.2%291 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed Sentinels | 39c | 310.04$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.13 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Evil Geniuses | 62c | 302.93$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.82 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Evil Geniuses | 61c | 182.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed Evil Geniuses | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 286 | 40.9%117 W · 169 L | -26.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Evil Geniuses | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Evil Geniuses | 55c | 83.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…0242backed Sentinels | 74c | 74.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Evil Geniuses | 55c | 70.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Evil Geniuses | 55c | 70.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Sentinels | 39c | 57.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Evil Geniuses | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…e7c2backed Sentinels | 40c | 47.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Sentinels | 39c | 40.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Evil Geniuses | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Sentinels | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 449 | 42.8%192 W · 257 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Sentinels | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Sentinels | 48c | 31.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 796 | 62.3%496 W · 300 L | +54.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…3cf4backed Evil Geniuses | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Evil Geniuses | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Evil Geniuses | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Evil Geniuses | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group OmegaSentinels won
- Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels - Map 1 WinnerSentinels won
- Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels - Map 2 WinnerSentinels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.