TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sentinelsof Evil Geniuses, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$143,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,810 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Evil Geniuses36c45,401$16,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,288.147236.1%26 W · 46 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Sentinels63c21,129$13,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,717.6678162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked Sentinels64c15,630$10,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,626.7913651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Sentinels66c12,764$8,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,388.6733153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked Evil Geniuses35c8,520$3,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,023.3312155.4%67 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed5…7f92backed Evil Geniuses36c5,355$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Sentinels65c4,947$3,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.115658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4d…20ccbacked Sentinels65c4,895$3,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.252343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Sentinels64c3,921$2,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.555162.7%32 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Evil Geniuses30c3,394$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.1732047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Evil Geniuses29c3,255$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.1360022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Evil Geniuses37c2,608$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.82240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Sentinels62c2,443$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.3452155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Evil Geniuses36c2,116$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.5941734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Evil Geniuses37c2,000$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7302657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed Evil Geniuses37c1,924$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.0390%0 W · 9 L-4.2wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Evil Geniuses35c1,745$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.7720840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Evil Geniuses37c1,684$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.0293148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Sentinels80c1,623$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.5278562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Sentinels64c1,529$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.356445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Sentinels63c1,475$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.811255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67d3…96cbbacked Evil Geniuses38c1,241$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.581040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Sentinels79c1,225$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.9768949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Evil Geniuses37c1,100$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1512138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed Sentinels64c1,070$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+40.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Evil Geniuses21c1,044$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.434641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Evil Geniuses15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Evil Geniuses15c999.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012540.8%51 W · 74 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Sentinels64c988.92$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.9562156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Evil Geniuses14c986.98$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.321,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Evil Geniuses15c965.2$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2177744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4a2…6fc8backed Evil Geniuses38c866$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.081540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Evil Geniuses18c833$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0650944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Evil Geniuses14c804.84$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5216442.1%69 W · 95 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Evil Geniuses36c792.35$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1524946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Evil Geniuses37c783.02$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.727342.5%31 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Sentinels64c782.72$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.783743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sentinels66c640.93$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.031,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce42…5cddbacked Evil Geniuses37c635.05$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.975856.9%33 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Evil Geniuses28c620.73$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7228541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x96bb…f0fabacked Sentinels65c602.46$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.862462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Evil Geniuses16c600$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9326634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9438…e019backed Sentinels63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2223357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa390…c7d9backed Evil Geniuses22c553.71$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.487920.3%16 W · 63 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Evil Geniuses37c550.39$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7715942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Sentinels62c538.41$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.628955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed Evil Geniuses15c533.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.84728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+21.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Evil Geniuses38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1906338.1%24 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64a7…2133backed Evil Geniuses18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-75.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Evil Geniuses38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19022047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45fa…f86fbacked Evil Geniuses37c484.87$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.41030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sentinels67c480.36$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.521,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Evil Geniuses30c476.17$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Evil Geniuses38c473.49$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9315843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c7f…12d5backed Sentinels63c456.03$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+43%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Evil Geniuses36c453.71$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.485052%26 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Evil Geniuses14c441.94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1917448.3%84 W · 90 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed Evil Geniuses36c380.58$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0118735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Evil Geniuses18c346.86$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8935142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed Sentinels63c341.16$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.231450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x877e…8c95backed Evil Geniuses33c335.64$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.919142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Evil Geniuses25c333.01$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8270251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Sentinels79c315.74$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1334739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa903…bcd2backed Sentinels64c305.75$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.072263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Evil Geniuses36c283.71$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.989443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Sentinels69c261.56$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.0822955%126 W · 103 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Evil Geniuses37c259.79$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1225555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Evil Geniuses19c246$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.741,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Sentinels66c222.64$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.718653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Evil Geniuses5c210$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5323.1%1 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Evil Geniuses35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7018143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Evil Geniuses16c196.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1424032.1%77 W · 163 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Sentinels64c195.68$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.443259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d46…7f85backed Sentinels63c194.01$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.783073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc2d…6040backed Evil Geniuses15c191.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Evil Geniuses37c190.48$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4886747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Evil Geniuses16c188$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.981,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e6f…3231backed Sentinels67c175.29$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.52860.7%17 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Evil Geniuses17c171.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.141,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Sentinels63c169.45$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.433753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x115a…98e1backed Sentinels65c165.68$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.991957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Sentinels65c164.07$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4228247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Sentinels65c156.64$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8211454.4%62 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eb9…cb5dbacked Evil Geniuses37c156.03$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7315145%68 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c67…e838backed Evil Geniuses18c154$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.344134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-41.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked Sentinels64c152.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0414747.6%70 W · 77 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ac…6ac9backed Sentinels64c152.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.041643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Evil Geniuses37c152.69$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9316345.4%74 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Sentinels65c150.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.724060%24 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7d8…e2e8backed Sentinels65c150.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.725151%26 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Evil Geniuses38c148.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2528747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5e…f707backed Evil Geniuses11c146.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Evil Geniuses35c144.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.455448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed Sentinels71c138.97$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.759859.2%58 W · 40 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Evil Geniuses14c138.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9680%0 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Sentinels65c137.06$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.975451.9%28 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x596f…14eabacked Evil Geniuses28c132.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.456841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5002…a28fbacked Evil Geniuses33c125.68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.292552%13 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7b…7e95backed Sentinels64c107.01$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.52922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-66.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Evil Geniuses15c102.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1811232.1%36 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.