TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sentinelsof Evil Geniuses, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$325,200
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$413,429

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,200 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26f8…3452backed Sentinels68c72,398$49,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,167.415955.9%33 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Evil Geniuses32c68,946$22,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,024.8354751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5f…1a75backed Evil Geniuses0c39,272$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Sentinels68c11,500$7,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,720.2478162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Evil Geniuses36c11,355$4,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,119.4168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Evil Geniuses37c9,271$3,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,463.6665559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Sentinels63c8,085$5,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,957.9968949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Evil Geniuses39c7,557$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,948.753159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Sentinels53c6,765$3,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,179.619844.9%44 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Evil Geniuses40c6,090$2,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415.8994361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeed5…7f92backed Evil Geniuses34c5,976$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Sentinels66c5,259$3,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.591861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Sentinels68c4,771$3,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.8833153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Sentinels66c4,649$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.6252155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked Sentinels55c4,375$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.6913651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Evil Geniuses48c4,169$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.8826650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Evil Geniuses32c3,999$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.5426738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Sentinels59c3,093$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.6323151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4d…20ccbacked Sentinels69c2,897$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.152343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Evil Geniuses41c2,519$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.7929151.5%150 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Sentinels60c2,430$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.473666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Evil Geniuses31c1,988$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.1231153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Evil Geniuses36c1,824$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.7728747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Sentinels60c1,525$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.7215342.5%65 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked Evil Geniuses1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Evil Geniuses42c1,392$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.61952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Evil Geniuses31c1,364$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.695358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Evil Geniuses35c1,319$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.0632047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Evil Geniuses40c1,069$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.8478562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Evil Geniuses41c1,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4056338.1%24 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Evil Geniuses31c997.1$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.128541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Sentinels66c943.4$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.6670251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Evil Geniuses22c907.39$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5650944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Sentinels56c772.65$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.275162.7%32 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked Evil Geniuses31c750$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.56137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Evil Geniuses25c693.16$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.297934.2%27 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Evil Geniuses32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16022047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3304…8313backed Sentinels54c450.19$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.096755.2%37 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Sentinels58c407.19$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.2260022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sentinels55c397.26$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.151,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Sentinels76c394.22$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.967565.3%49 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Evil Geniuses5c345.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8340731.7%129 W · 278 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Evil Geniuses30c335.3$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5926051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Evil Geniuses20c330$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.641,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Evil Geniuses42c326.71$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8920840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x877e…8c95backed Sentinels68c321.09$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.199142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Sentinels58c302.31$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8762156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Evil Geniuses37c288.66$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.825752.1%134 W · 123 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Evil Geniuses33c287.93$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.929837.8%37 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Sentinels66c222.64$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.742840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Evil Geniuses32c222.62$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.735349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed Sentinels56c212.97$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.439859.2%58 W · 40 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf80…97ebbacked Sentinels60c205.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.391747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Sentinels65c201.11$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3914152.5%74 W · 67 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Evil Geniuses34c198.35$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.33435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Evil Geniuses24c164.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6896245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Sentinels60c162.67$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.076040%24 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Evil Geniuses37c154.24$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.945538.2%21 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Sentinels73c149.28$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0299846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Evil Geniuses26c145.04$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2210630.2%32 W · 74 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Evil Geniuses45c139.8$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.266648.5%32 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Sentinels59c130.01$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7226436%95 W · 169 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc400…21a7backed Sentinels56c114.57$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.693545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e51…71d4backed Sentinels61c111.33$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.939654.2%52 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Evil Geniuses28c106$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.689438.3%36 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a47…5e77backed Evil Geniuses35c103.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.172138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked Evil Geniuses33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Sentinels70c97.42$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.120248%97 W · 105 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Evil Geniuses30c93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0413336.8%49 W · 84 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Sentinels58c91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.226730.7%82 W · 185 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Sentinels70c90.77$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.861338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked Evil Geniuses29c84.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.112040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked Sentinels67c84.42$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.717365.8%48 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2798…a9c7backed Sentinels61c80.08$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.232665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked Evil Geniuses33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.46939.1%27 W · 42 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Evil Geniuses30c77.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.161844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5d…d5dfbacked Sentinels75c75.71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.576355.6%35 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x912e…0eaebacked Evil Geniuses38c74.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.548634.9%30 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Evil Geniuses26c72.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1223463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf885…d719backed Evil Geniuses37c70.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.734060%24 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Evil Geniuses32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0563652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Sentinels50c68.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2524032.1%77 W · 163 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe56a…2ba5backed Evil Geniuses31c63.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.863930.8%12 W · 27 L-7.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Sentinels52c60.1$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1339166%258 W · 133 L+24.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Evil Geniuses49c58.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.974766%31 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1643…6ec8backed Evil Geniuses34c55.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.871050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sentinels65c55.28$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3566438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11ea…594fbacked Evil Geniuses46c52.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.193043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Evil Geniuses41c50.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.854348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3b…0353backed Evil Geniuses34c50.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb45…0c68backed Sentinels59c49.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.332347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Sentinels61c49.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.038259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed Evil Geniuses33c49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.176045%27 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Evil Geniuses23c47.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Evil Geniuses25c46.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4680%0 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Sentinels62c42.49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.091,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e60…449abacked Sentinels56c42.05$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.351758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4baf…498cbacked Evil Geniuses45c40.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.37944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Evil Geniuses40c39.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.966259.7%37 W · 25 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed Sentinels53c39.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6928151.6%145 W · 136 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.