Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6bdeff3c0e8ed72f2bafcd0f1cc5a06570c4b9ea31997eb027c4310435c8797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 5c | 3,173$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fc…7080backed No | 1c | 1,332$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 43c | 986.97$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.05 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 77c | 810.41$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 13c | 804.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 58c | 587.07$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.61 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 35c | 353.43$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.43 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 340.52$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 19c | 338.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 31c | 337.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.99 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 16c | 268.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 252.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 227.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.67 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 39c | 221.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 177.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 172.65$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 171.76$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 152.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…eec2backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 40c | 149.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 135.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 124.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 27c | 121.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 33c | 119.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 32c | 109.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 17c | 106.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 20c | 106.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes | 17c | 104.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 19c | 89.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…a0ecbacked No | 64c | 84.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 48c | 83.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 83.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…31c0backed No | 47c | 74.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 73.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 33c | 70.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 17c | 62.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 19c | 60.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 60.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 67c | 59.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…665fbacked Yes | 34c | 59.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 21c | 59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76c…7c92backed No | 26c | 51.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked Yes | 79c | 51.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 67c | 49.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 27c | 45.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 49c | 41.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 69c | 38.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 28c | 38.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 69c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked No | 79c | 33.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x686b…5de0backed Yes | 50c | 32.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…6b75backed No | 71c | 30.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…1bf6backed No | 72c | 27.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 48c | 25.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 62c | 20.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 54c | 18.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.