Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22385295c19510217ce0abfcfb2b0c4060d0865125d5f0e640c306fd25e6cfa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,051$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 35c | 862.71$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.89 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 12c | 794.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 11c | 525.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 20c | 409.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 341.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 339.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 78c | 334.63$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 23c | 313.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 265.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 21c | 240.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 224.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 30c | 189.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 70c | 163.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 20c | 153.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 141.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 37c | 111.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 34c | 109.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 105.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 104.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 104.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 101.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…675cbacked No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 22c | 95.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 36c | 91.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 23c | 88.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 62c | 82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…665fbacked Yes | 37c | 80.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 78.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 16c | 74.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…699bbacked Yes | 22c | 70.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 37c | 67.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 59c | 48.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 44.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 43.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…f0f4backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7518…ef34backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…2cb8backed Yes | 36c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 29.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 69c | 28.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…ec7dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed No | 73c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 78c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…bab5backed No | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.