MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6cd5348e3c8bd8f94d83fed4ebd3c4f1af6d4e33dd7b764ef03c951441aef8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 7,335$4,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845.75 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 1,559$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.17 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896d…cd2cbacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 929.66$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 649.19$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Detroit Tigers | 59c | 481.52$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.42 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 362.84$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 72c | 311.88$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 291.93$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 288.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 240.15$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 212.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Detroit Tigers | 39c | 192.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 144.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 109.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 105.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 75.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Detroit Tigers | 39c | 69.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 56.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 56.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 56.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 56.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 56.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 53.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 49.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 48.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 45.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 43.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 40.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 36.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Detroit Tigers | 42c | 33.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 31.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…9282backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 28.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 313 | 53%166 W · 147 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 24.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Miami Marlins | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.