TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Athletics (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Athletics, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,067 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics46c4,449$2,034 inLost-$2,033.718,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals54c4,312$2,340 inWon+$1,971.594,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics58c2,073$1,193 inLost-$1,193.1311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals42c1,994$837 inWon+$1,156.528,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Kansas City Royals53c379.84$202 inWon+$177.3746444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Athletics44c149.71$66 inLost-$66.381,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals46c144.99$67 inWon+$78.294,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Athletics23c138$32 inLost-$31.7454642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals53c136.77$73 inWon+$63.8712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed Athletics47c106$50 inLost-$49.825639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Kansas City Royals72c100$72 inWon+$281,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Athletics28c100$28 inLost-$2887352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kansas City Royals77c94$72 inWon+$21.71,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Kansas City Royals77c75$58 inWon+$17.2545151.2%231 W · 220 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Kansas City Royals78c70.75$55 inWon+$15.799259.8%55 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Athletics30c48.38$14 inLost-$14.295,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe935…3991backed Athletics46c46$21 inLost-$21.1610042%42 W · 58 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Athletics47c45.69$21 inLost-$21.4747852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Athletics46c40.07$18 inLost-$18.432,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics47c40$19 inLost-$18.84,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals67c24.67$17 inWon+$8.079,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals78c24$19 inWon+$5.258,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.