TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Athletics, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$717,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$711,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $717,862 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0954…1e1bbacked Athletics41c353,151$144,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144,792.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Kansas City Royals59c100,000$59,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,00050153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Kansas City Royals59c99,999$58,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,999.591,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals42c55,169$23,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,004.224,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals51c35,111$17,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,283.310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics59c26,036$15,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,485.322,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Kansas City Royals59c24,400$14,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00415451.9%80 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics58c19,961$11,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,550.958,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Kansas City Royals51c19,938$10,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,672.587847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Kansas City Royals59c19,813$11,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,123.3126054.2%141 W · 119 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9166…5bd5backed Athletics70c18,945$13,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,340.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kansas City Royals59c17,975$10,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,369.781,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals59c16,559$9,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,789.193,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals45c15,143$6,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,396.5211,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals34c9,192$3,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,095.998,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Athletics40c8,745$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,497.9353150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics75c6,898$5,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,153.54,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Kansas City Royals55c6,797$3,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,029.279442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…c9a7backed Kansas City Royals15c5,858$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,979.364641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeafc…e4c4backed Kansas City Royals56c5,298$2,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.717156.3%40 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals46c4,743$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,570.548,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Kansas City Royals60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Kansas City Royals67c3,927$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.464,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kansas City Royals34c3,520$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.7595045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Kansas City Royals59c3,000$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23661947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Kansas City Royals60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Kansas City Royals59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Kansas City Royals59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23045252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Kansas City Royals55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3505048%24 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals44c2,759$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.154,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e54…b186backed Athletics11c2,727$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001060%6 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+122%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Athletics41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd403…a817backed Athletics2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe963…6753backed Athletics40c1,698$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.196341.3%26 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Athletics42c1,641$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.1992046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e50…0ea8backed Athletics2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30577%4 W · 53 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+83%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Kansas City Royals59c1,496$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.3636048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals50c1,481$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.534,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fa…d071backed Athletics70c1,477$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.197742.9%33 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics46c1,390$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.522,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Athletics46c1,227$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.4244953.7%241 W · 208 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fb…675ebacked Kansas City Royals13c1,172$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Kansas City Royals48c1,090$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.1348660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Athletics44c1,050$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46219534.4%67 W · 128 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Athletics41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41029046.6%135 W · 155 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Athletics65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6506844.1%30 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Kansas City Royals38c954.78$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.3434952.7%184 W · 165 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Kansas City Royals59c948.2$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.761,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Kansas City Royals59c912.92$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.31,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Kansas City Royals60c847.46$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9887750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Kansas City Royals23c750$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.594034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Athletics49c700$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Kansas City Royals10c691.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.330548.9%149 W · 156 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Athletics75c669.32$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.9247358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed Athletics78c650$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5074141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Athletics63c592.5$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.7395252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Kansas City Royals52c560$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.855653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Kansas City Royals36c503.47$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0660348.6%293 W · 310 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Kansas City Royals60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20034756.5%196 W · 151 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Kansas City Royals60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20066050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kansas City Royals58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Athletics41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20539846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked Athletics41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20513848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd759…6d1abacked Athletics58c491.38$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2854949%24 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Athletics55c480.49$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.4647852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Athletics46c471.13$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.231957.4%183 W · 136 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals59c469.3$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.386,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Kansas City Royals59c460$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.62,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Kansas City Royals31c456.2$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.751,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Kansas City Royals16c451.22$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.0219143.5%83 W · 108 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics44c430.04$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.291,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab7…6978backed Kansas City Royals35c399.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26014643.2%63 W · 83 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked Athletics41c377.72$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8758943.1%254 W · 335 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed Athletics79c377$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.831,09979.7%876 W · 223 L+33.4wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9303…cc05backed Kansas City Royals61c372.01$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.081361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Kansas City Royals60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.337860.3%47 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Kansas City Royals57c323.82$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.2486548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Kansas City Royals46c318.02$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.421,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Athletics69c290.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.991,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42ab…0d2dbacked Kansas City Royals60c276.67$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6711255.4%62 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Athletics43c276$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5454642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Kansas City Royals60c276$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.427348%131 W · 142 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d0…8c73backed Kansas City Royals23c268.43$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.721030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Kansas City Royals59c267.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.881,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Kansas City Royals57c264.07$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.591,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Athletics43c260$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.81,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics76c259$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Athletics58c254.82$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1492,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Athletics75c252.73$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18997944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Kansas City Royals37c245.57$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7746444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Athletics53c224.74$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1181257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Athletics43c220$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.61,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Athletics43c220$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.61,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals60c219.24$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.74,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe3…c19abacked Kansas City Royals45c217.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.564757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Athletics47c211$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012946.5%60 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Kansas City Royals43c203.12$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7325447.6%121 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Kansas City Royals33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1341,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Athletics44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c78…7d67backed Athletics38c200$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.87445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.