MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37ae510eedf721928e0c7036107a683eac977dc00c0979686de0222dc5738c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Athletics, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 5,842$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,779.3 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 65c | 5,198$3,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.14 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 64c | 1,041$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.86 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Kansas City Royals | 71c | 340.9$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Athletics | 29c | 318.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics | 29c | 224$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 42c | 215.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 212.21$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 32c | 171.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 168.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Kansas City Royals | 20c | 155.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.82 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Athletics | 38c | 128.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Kansas City Royals | 30c | 125.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 119.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed Athletics | 66c | 101.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 54.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 52.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 49.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Athletics | 66c | 47.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 44.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 42.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Athletics | 29c | 42.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 50c | 38.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5564…345ebacked Athletics | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Athletics | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.