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South American Leagues · resolved market

Will Mazatlán FC vs. Club León FC end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,084 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed No79c1,443$1,142 inWon+$300.381,98544.8%890 W · 1,095 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No73c1,128$822 inWon+$305.771,48748.7%724 W · 763 L-17.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes27c869.14$235 inLost-$234.6781740.8%333 W · 484 L+20.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes27c600$162 inLost-$1622828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed No73c562.85$411 inWon+$151.975560%33 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No74c332$246 inWon+$86.3219630.6%60 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick31cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes12c301.03$37 inLost-$37.223,81738.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L-30.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes12c268.88$32 inLost-$32.031,39352.6%733 W · 660 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes26c216.87$56 inLost-$55.858,17548.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L+27.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes27c214$58 inLost-$57.781,44251.9%748 W · 694 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes19c206.89$38 inLost-$38.3525925.1%65 W · 194 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No79c173.59$138 inWon+$35.61,05549.3%520 W · 535 L+14.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f02…12f5backed Yes9c167.78$15 inLost-$1516041.3%66 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes27c167.2$45 inLost-$44.712,01551.4%1,036 W · 979 L+44.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Yes27c151.85$41 inLost-$4119233.3%64 W · 128 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yes11c150$17 inLost-$16.584943.8%372 W · 477 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes23c121.18$28 inLost-$28.311,46656.8%833 W · 633 L+56.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ba…f2c5backed Yes28c120$34 inLost-$33.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost-$261,70352%886 W · 817 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes27c100$27 inLost-$2739853%211 W · 187 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Yes33c100$33 inLost-$32.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yes27c90$24 inLost-$24.367948.2%327 W · 352 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Yes28c76$22 inLost-$21.5712736.2%46 W · 81 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x735b…acb1backed No73c75$55 inWon+$20.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f8…73b4backed Yes28c62.29$17 inLost-$17.441752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfae1…7bb6backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost-$152128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked No75c46.7$35 inWon+$11.7213548.9%66 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3483…2c80backed No73c46$34 inWon+$12.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No67c40$27 inWon+$13.227842.4%118 W · 160 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8213…cc85backed Yes28c37.6$11 inLost-$10.5330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No75c33.33$25 inWon+$8.337133.8%24 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed No72c33.25$24 inWon+$9.3113351.1%68 W · 65 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed No71c29$21 inWon+$8.4117066.5%113 W · 57 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0dc…ffadbacked No74c18$13 inWon+$4.775060%30 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No77c16.29$12 inWon+$3.8199259.1%586 W · 406 L+108.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.