Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf75886af4b5209c457b0399087ac60df2a471cf6233f04162ff27c334c0c35d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 690.35$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 456.13$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 28c | 357.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 61c | 302.26$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 62c | 268.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 30c | 257.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…9715backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 179.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 173.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 18c | 134.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 32c | 123.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Yes | 23c | 121.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 31c | 121.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 68c | 115.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 30c | 109.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 99.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 90.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 58c | 87.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 35c | 81.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 73.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 15c | 72.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 39c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 69c | 61.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 57.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…59babacked Yes | 29c | 49.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked No | 68c | 48.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…66f8backed No | 78c | 43.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 42.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 37c | 39.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 39.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 71c | 39.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 37.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked No | 76c | 34.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 69c | 34.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 67c | 30.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 35c | 30.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed No | 64c | 26.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 64c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 21.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 76c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 76c | 14.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 64°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.