NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7706559e12539b530a37df0f2d62f814213f5389116f012701c814ca5602ea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rangersof Lightning, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Lightning | 36c | 708.33$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Rangers | 64c | 514.33$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.61 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 36c | 407.14$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Rangers | 69c | 290.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Rangers | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Lightning | 35c | 107.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…e042backed Rangers | 64c | 102$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Rangers | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Rangers | 65c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lightning | 33c | 63.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Lightning | 33c | 57.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Lightning | 36c | 50.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Lightning | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rangers | 65c | 48.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Lightning | 35c | 43.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Rangers | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Rangers | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…838cbacked Rangers | 64c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…96eebacked Rangers | 64c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…3957backed Rangers | 64c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…90bdbacked Rangers | 68c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Rangers vs. LightningRangers won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.