NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98d5549d99a75d02e6975cb0f85be63636c26d63bcbb6ba1a4a424414796f1bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 48c | 4,072$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.12 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 54c | 3,306$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.65 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 1,615$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,556$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.02 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 47c | 1,382$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.75 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 54c | 689$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.94 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 46c | 654.73$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.15 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 402.03$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.93 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 54c | 334.52$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.88 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 332.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Over | 54c | 260$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 54c | 178.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 54c | 65.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…baecbacked Over | 54c | 33.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ed…b8f1backed Over | 54c | 29.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…77afbacked Under | 48c | 29.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…e707backed Over | 54c | 21.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Rangers vs. LightningRangers won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.