NFL · resolved market
TB vs. NYJ: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf80ca9f5a40e435d3de36332a47e0090073e004edce06ff877e41644e3217d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 2,687$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.19 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 55c | 1,250$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Under | 50c | 900$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 55c | 834$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.55 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 51c | 392.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 57c | 349.38$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.09 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 317.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 47c | 275.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 275.25$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.38 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 172.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 171.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 64c | 142.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 41c | 126$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 53c | 88.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 39c | 87.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 48c | 86.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 46c | 69.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 31.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 46c | 27.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4a…4b20backed Over | 64c | 22.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 57c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TB vs. NYJ: O/U 36.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jets (-4.5)Buccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. JetsBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Jets: 1H MoneylineJets won
- Spread: NYJ (-1.5)TB won
- Spread: NYJ (-2.5)TB won
- Spread: NYJ (-5.5)TB won
- Spread: NYJ (-6.5)TB won
- Spread: TB (-1.5)TB won
- TB vs. NYJ: O/U 35.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.