NFL · resolved market
Spread: NYJ (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43dac2a19d520d73eb083d6e71aa3fa9a8ed1e42b9e7fce7305798286959308b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TBof NYJ, TB
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae82…faf0backed TB | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed NYJ | 49c | 2,769$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.28 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed NYJ | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked TB | 51c | 1,171$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked TB | 34c | 1,050$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed TB | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed NYJ | 66c | 597$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.02 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed NYJ | 38c | 426.08$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed NYJ | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked NYJ | 47c | 307.4$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.78 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked NYJ | 46c | 275.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked NYJ | 66c | 98.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed NYJ | 66c | 93.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed TB | 54c | 62.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed TB | 56c | 51.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked TB | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked NYJ | 57c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed TB | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed NYJ | 49c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed TB | 55c | 32.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed TB | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed NYJ | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked NYJ | 66c | 19.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: NYJ (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jets (-4.5)Buccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. JetsBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Jets: 1H MoneylineJets won
- Spread: NYJ (-1.5)TB won
- Spread: NYJ (-2.5)TB won
- Spread: NYJ (-5.5)TB won
- Spread: TB (-1.5)TB won
- TB vs. NYJ: O/U 35.5Over won
- TB vs. NYJ: O/U 36.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.