NFL · resolved market
Spread: NYJ (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdba80b0424e1246f429301738c4ec607f31ba09fc8a65f6e4d309cfce998fc9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TBof NYJ, TB
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $418,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked TB | 53c | 138,133$72,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,196.83 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed NYJ | 47c | 107,858$50,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,696.24 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed NYJ | 48c | 8,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed NYJ | 48c | 5,167$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.02 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed NYJ | 49c | 4,800$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed NYJ | 47c | 3,168$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.51 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed NYJ | 48c | 2,216$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.13 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed NYJ | 47c | 1,348$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.62 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed NYJ | 49c | 1,313$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.51 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed NYJ | 46c | 1,161$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.87 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed TB | 50c | 764.3$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.15 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked NYJ | 47c | 745$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.15 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed TB | 53c | 596$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.12 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked NYJ | 48c | 511.9$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.03 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed NYJ | 47c | 508.68$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.08 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked TB | 56c | 500$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…d938backed NYJ | 50c | 405$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed NYJ | 49c | 404.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed NYJ | 47c | 390$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed NYJ | 48c | 374.44$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed NYJ | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked NYJ | 48c | 256$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked NYJ | 44c | 252$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked NYJ | 47c | 234$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked NYJ | 48c | 204.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked TB | 48c | 190.83$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e9…fb58backed NYJ | 48c | 167.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed NYJ | 47c | 148.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked NYJ | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked NYJ | 48c | 117.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed NYJ | 46c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked NYJ | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked TB | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed NYJ | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed NYJ | 49c | 74.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed NYJ | 47c | 73.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed NYJ | 51c | 68.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked NYJ | 48c | 67.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked NYJ | 48c | 64.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked NYJ | 43c | 64.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked NYJ | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…9871backed NYJ | 48c | 41.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35d…363bbacked NYJ | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed TB | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed TB | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed NYJ | 47c | 28.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked TB | 51c | 26.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed TB | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b7adbacked NYJ | 54c | 23.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: NYJ (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jets (-4.5)Buccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. JetsBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Jets: 1H MoneylineJets won
- Spread: NYJ (-1.5)TB won
- Spread: NYJ (-2.5)TB won
- Spread: NYJ (-6.5)TB won
- Spread: TB (-1.5)TB won
- TB vs. NYJ: O/U 35.5Over won
- TB vs. NYJ: O/U 36.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.