Other European Leagues · resolved market
Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf823dc69a909d926e5c0876b922275b03dbb427bb42244236b3b8bd6e44ce5d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 6c | 3,433$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.54 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 4c | 1,921$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 34c | 1,845$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.86 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 68c | 700.26$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.18 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 65c | 651.18$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.27 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 7c | 618.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Over | 59c | 465.1$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 352.52$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.98 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Over | 5c | 231.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 199.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Over | 63c | 174.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -9.2wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -7.5wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 175 | 29.1%51 W · 124 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 34c | 95.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 370 | 49.5%183 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Over | 34c | 88.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 31c | 79.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -12.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 19c | 79.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 66c | 51.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 35c | 39.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f65…ec56backed Over | 66c | 29.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5419…e3d2backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 69c | 22.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…34d6backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 66c | 19.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 2.5this page
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: AZ O/U 0.5Over won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)Fortuna Sittard won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.