Other European Leagues · resolved market
Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dd4a36ba4404770f22f54ba53ada0e6b27857f5e0c93fcacab5db9d8bbf006f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 30c | 3,180$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.52 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…b473backed Over | 72c | 2,755$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 51c | 2,656$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.52 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Under | 80c | 2,481$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over | 50c | 1,663$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.64 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 61c | 651.62$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.91 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 9c | 508.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.15 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…4591backed Under | 57c | 466.67$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Over | 21c | 436.71$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.05 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 47c | 402.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.01 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Over | 70c | 285.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 38c | 243.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +8.2wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 33c | 220.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…b081backed Under | 47c | 211.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 150.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a9…82b9backed Over | 60c | 148$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…6f17backed Over | 40c | 101.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 30c | 97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 338 | 53.3%180 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 76c | 84.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 197 | 29.9%59 W · 138 L | -21.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 34c | 79.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…80d6backed Over | 69c | 77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 75c | 67.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Over | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 62c | 53.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 220 | 62.3%137 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 46.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 323 | 50.2%162 W · 161 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e8…2f67backed Over | 57c | 43.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 62c | 40.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +12.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…cebfbacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 63c | 27.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbf…fb78backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 256 | 41.4%106 W · 150 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 1.5this page
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: AZ O/U 0.5Over won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fortuna Sittard vs. AZ: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)Fortuna Sittard won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.