Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump be named in the Epstein survivors' list?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf826adb9925e58d2c472ef3243c9167e7f8f80eb9f584b6a9d29b67c877b1bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 72c | 1,379$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.58 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 21c | 888$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 804.73$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.66 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 27c | 675.77$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd780…48b2backed Yes | 19c | 257.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 69c | 253$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…6a9abacked Yes | 16c | 247.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 239.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3070backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…1034backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 33c | 104.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0839…e88ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 18c | 93.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab22…762dbacked Yes | 67c | 74.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…1171backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…92e0backed Yes | 24c | 55.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…e03ebacked Yes | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…fc4abacked Yes | 71c | 49.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58f7…e077backed Yes | 22c | 46.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 44.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 31c | 35.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…3a48backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…f44abacked No | 76c | 19.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954a…e1e5backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump be named in the Epstein survivors' list?this page
- Will Alan Dershowitz be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Barack Obama be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Bill Clinton be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Bill Gates be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Henry Kissinger be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Jay-Z be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Joe Biden be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Kevin Spacey be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Oprah Winfrey be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Prince Andrew be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
- Will Stephen Hawking be named in the Epstein survivors' list?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.