NHL · resolved market
Will Connor McDavid record the most total points in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf838dd1a4f092a8adbfc22ffcceeb84d8e0e7e22be6afb106a60b1ebe1988ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a35…77f9backed Yes | 40c | 32,566$13,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,026.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8893…ae72backed No | 60c | 32,566$19,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,026.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 57c | 2,858$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.95 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2397…8eb2backed Yes | 42c | 852.77$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 39c | 745.81$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.97 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 46c | 700$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Yes | 42c | 550$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…f646backed Yes | 36c | 528.21$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 428.54$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.02 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…a365backed Yes | 40c | 269$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 37c | 240.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 59c | 210.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…1b02backed No | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…b655backed Yes | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 75c | 120.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 76c | 111$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 100.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8264…845abacked Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 58c | 31.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a4…8ff5backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…be84backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5f…78a2backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…35d2backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be9…8dcfbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…8044backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf862…d5d0backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…baf5backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…365cbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Connor McDavid record the most total points in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals?this page
- Will Leon Draisaitl record the most total points in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals?No won
- Will Matthew Tkachuk record the most total points in the NHL Stanley Cup Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.