South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf84904ae7359fdaf18b1c95e13d8196e09c0db0b404b3b4e75210abf1cb157a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44ca…eeb4backed Over | 39c | 3,253$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 2,216$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 21c | 1,990$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.69 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 39c | 1,235$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.7 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 1,148$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.67 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 953.33$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 16c | 593.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 39c | 412.31$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 61c | 383.29$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.88 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 80c | 361.5$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 80c | 361.5$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 80c | 361.31$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 80c | 360.25$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 346.07$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.42 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 343.7$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.11 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 68c | 288.47$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 212.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 63c | 195.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 118.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 77c | 109.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 74c | 98.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 80c | 86.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 80c | 86.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Over | 15c | 65.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 39c | 61.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 37c | 53.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 39c | 46.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 33c | 43.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 63c | 43.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 34c | 42.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…924ebacked Over | 33c | 40.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a7…e397backed Under | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 42c | 34.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 63c | 34.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 79c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 80c | 28.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…8859backed Under | 63c | 20.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Under | 69c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 78c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Under | 80c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 79c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5this page
- EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Vitória vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)EC Vitória won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)EC Vitória won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.