Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sofia Kenin vs Himeno Sakatsume
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf852ffdd7cc8e59c8c00e23ecddc9d58405c9c7f1efdb8ba6b54cdf3fac71461
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sakatsumeof Kenin, Sakatsume
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Sakatsume | 32c | 4,007$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,727.42 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sakatsume | 69c | 3,269$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.47 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sakatsume | 50c | 2,367$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.09 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Kenin | 38c | 2,134$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.55 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Kenin | 45c | 1,731$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.93 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sakatsume | 23c | 1,400$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.73 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kenin | 69c | 1,120$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.92 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Kenin | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Kenin | 52c | 963.04$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.01 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Sakatsume | 25c | 856.82$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.68 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kenin | 60c | 833$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.12 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Kenin | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…b5b2backed Sakatsume | 26c | 719.23$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Kenin | 61c | 620.75$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.65 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sakatsume | 23c | 474.77$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.88 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kenin | 74c | 464.92$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.04 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Sakatsume | 53c | 404$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Sakatsume | 54c | 399.99$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Kenin | 77c | 390$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…b56fbacked Kenin | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kenin | 13c | 355.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…1595backed Kenin | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc172…47cbbacked Sakatsume | 57c | 249.23$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Kenin | 71c | 225$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Kenin | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Kenin | 78c | 191.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Kenin | 69c | 158.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Kenin | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Kenin | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Kenin | 60c | 130$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Kenin | 78c | 129.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sakatsume | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Sakatsume | 55c | 91.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…b75bbacked Sakatsume | 62c | 79.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Sakatsume | 69c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kenin | 76c | 65.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Kenin | 25c | 64.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Kenin | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed Kenin | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…7c10backed Kenin | 76c | 38.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Kenin | 77c | 35.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2457…54acbacked Kenin | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Kenin | 48c | 31.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Kenin | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…8355backed Kenin | 78c | 21.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71f…9043backed Kenin | 78c | 21.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…f847backed Sakatsume | 60c | 21.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…6362backed Sakatsume | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…e189backed Sakatsume | 71c | 18.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.