Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf861fc7dc46cc2611ed159fa75babb26b74c6c0ca21f01f508659e1cc8413fe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 32c | 2,953$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.49 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,422$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 1,283$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 39c | 549.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.48 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 50c | 510$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 4c | 494.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 61c | 273.55$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 231.15$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 61c | 215.59$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.51 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 67c | 191.9$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 37c | 187$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Over | 50c | 186$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d4…8c7fbacked Under | 62c | 165$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 63c | 113.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 38c | 104.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 63c | 101$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 50c | 97.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 51c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 63c | 83.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 61c | 72.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Under | 61c | 68.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 66c | 60.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 37c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 53.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 61c | 20.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 71c | 14.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.