Tennis · resolved market
Asuncion: Guido Justo vs Juan Carlos Prado
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8679171273b703161c81d0d47e642ffdd28a8fc2724cef3fb26d46e2ae52683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Carlos Pradoof Guido Justo, Juan Carlos Prado
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,686 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481d…9098backed Juan Carlos Prado | 53c | 1,752$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.77 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Guido Justo | 13c | 1,638$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.67 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Guido Justo | 48c | 1,552$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.02 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f2…a822backed Guido Justo | 46c | 1,150$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Juan Carlos Prado | 53c | 1,044$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.76 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Guido Justo | 6c | 884.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c32…d322backed Guido Justo | 47c | 851.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 120 | 66.7%80 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…16fbbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Juan Carlos Prado | 50c | 510.64$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.32 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Guido Justo | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 77c | 435.4$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Guido Justo | 29c | 428.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…b2b4backed Juan Carlos Prado | 77c | 390.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 368.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.23 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Guido Justo | 8c | 367$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Guido Justo | 30c | 340.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Guido Justo | 32c | 301.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 294.77$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.59 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Guido Justo | 46c | 289.24$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Guido Justo | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Guido Justo | 45c | 233.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 177.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Guido Justo | 9c | 165.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 151.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Guido Justo | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 147 | 46.3%68 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Juan Carlos Prado | 74c | 135.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 503 | 64.6%325 W · 178 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…bb71backed Guido Justo | 47c | 128.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…61fdbacked Guido Justo | 48c | 125.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Guido Justo | 48c | 123.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 211 | 49.8%105 W · 106 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Guido Justo | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Guido Justo | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 138 | 47.8%66 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…a178backed Guido Justo | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…9baebacked Juan Carlos Prado | 50c | 99.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 908 | 54.5%495 W · 413 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Guido Justo | 46c | 91.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Guido Justo | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Juan Carlos Prado | 50c | 88.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Guido Justo | 45c | 84.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…4b30backed Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Juan Carlos Prado | 52c | 67.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Guido Justo | 46c | 65.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 423 | 58.6%248 W · 175 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Guido Justo | 47c | 59.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Guido Justo | 46c | 58.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Guido Justo | 32c | 46.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…3780backed Guido Justo | 47c | 44.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 151 | 63.6%96 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Guido Justo | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Juan Carlos Prado | 52c | 40.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Juan Carlos Prado | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Guido Justo | 47c | 31.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Juan Carlos Prado | 53c | 30.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Guido Justo | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Guido Justo | 50c | 25.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Juan Carlos Prado | 52c | 25.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Guido Justo | 46c | 22.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 308 | 53.6%165 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Guido Justo | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97db…8de1backed Guido Justo | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Guido Justo | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Asuncion: Guido Justo vs Juan Carlos Pradothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Justo vs PradoPrado won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.