Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8731b0c7372a90324646c3f17f5d21828bd570b28b8c0c3e71610f8e542baf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Under | 52c | 38,663$20,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,576.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 12,000$5,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,760 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 7,447$3,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,574.54 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 48c | 7,267$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 48c | 4,387$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106.05 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 48c | 3,743$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 2,882$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.66 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 2,871$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.96 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 2,186$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.09 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Over | 44c | 1,999$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.64 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 67c | 885.29$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.95 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 664.18$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.55 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 24c | 634.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 632.28$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.71 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 51c | 621.95$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 51c | 393.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 48c | 387.5$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 32c | 377.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 44c | 350$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 46c | 210.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 48c | 210.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 49c | 204.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 52c | 204.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Over | 48c | 187.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 157.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 48c | 153.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 37c | 118.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Over | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 50c | 100.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad6…666fbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Under | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 50c | 50.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…150dbacked Over | 49c | 44.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 30c | 35.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 50c | 30.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 28.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…a765backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…d67dbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.