Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8a3bb005e9bd61a521c9fa909fb6b7323b74883a86ec8748fc71a66732f459f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked No | 78c | 4,006$3,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.82 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 23c | 3,514$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.57 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 2,579$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.51 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed No | 74c | 1,838$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 1,776$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.78 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 1,677$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.34 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 18c | 788.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.16 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b71…4e79backed Yes | 25c | 624$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 608.58$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 74c | 542.57$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.07 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 74c | 534$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 74c | 534$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 167 | 57.5%96 W · 71 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 72c | 364.72$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 364.36$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 350$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 808 | 53.6%433 W · 375 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 308.64$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 32c | 296.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 252 | 25%63 W · 189 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed No | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 73c | 198.57$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 196.46$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 26c | 190.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…3affbacked Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 13c | 127.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 38.9%61 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 74c | 96.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 13c | 90.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 28c | 72.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81d…7447backed Yes | 37c | 67.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 66c | 63.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 74c | 60.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…1001backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Yes | 27c | 55.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 74c | 55.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 51.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 964 | 45.4%438 W · 526 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked No | 78c | 39.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 101 | 68.3%69 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…9588backed Yes | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…72f3backed No | 80c | 28.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 279 | 48%134 W · 145 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked No | 63c | 19.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 74c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-06?Yes won
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-04-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.