Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8ad7b9da625c41e13bbfe987f5ddf0282e11bea89c5b244a09fc55bff732747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 4,622$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.47 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 70c | 2,325$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.45 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.09 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 71c | 845.8$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.28 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 72c | 555.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 72c | 361.5$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 70c | 316.06$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 7c | 266.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked Over | 71c | 202.18$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 29c | 176.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 69c | 153.9$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 31c | 153.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…fca8backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…61afbacked Over | 72c | 91.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 29c | 88.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 29c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Under | 17c | 75.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…9bf3backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…475cbacked Over | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 28c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Over | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…e374backed Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Over | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Over | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Over | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d1…a7ffbacked Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b7…73e5backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed Over | 72c | 24.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 72c | 24.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Over | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Over | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Over | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Over | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Over | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked Over | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Over | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Over | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Over | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 51cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed Over | 71c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- US Cremonese vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.