Fifa International · resolved market
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8cbc4cee90aa5ce19319d570922ee036b37e1bd3cf0e7f0769d651a8a67bd3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,892$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.86 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 40c | 1,455$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.87 | 144 | 33.3%48 W · 96 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…a978backed Over | 60c | 1,060$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 246 | 49.2%121 W · 125 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 50c | 657.86$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.24 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…36dfbacked Under | 57c | 399.63$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.85 | 145 | 56.6%82 W · 63 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Over | 44c | 389$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.07 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…604abacked Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 61c | 211.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 193.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 28c | 159.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Under | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 41c | 108.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 248 | 40.3%100 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 42c | 105.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 59c | 104.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…1a9ebacked Under | 42c | 92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 61c | 84.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 61c | 78.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 43c | 70.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 62.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Over | 60c | 59.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 53.5%69 W · 60 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…5cfdbacked Under | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 41.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 59c | 36.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 61c | 25.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Over | 63c | 20.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 60c | 19.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 78c | 12.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5this page
- South Africa vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 0.5Under won
- South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5Under won
- South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5Under won
- South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5Under won
- South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: South Africa (-1.5)Nicaragua won
- Spread: South Africa (-2.5)Nicaragua won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.