CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf927ef0fe8df723d59948ffc0d63be678002389aa0dfbc456053de0afdc0d8e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-MANA eSportsof ex-MANA eSports, Alpha Dominion Nation
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked ex-MANA eSports | 64c | 8,748$5,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140.9 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 36c | 2,183$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.57 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 35c | 1,624$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.5 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 816.39$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 677.38$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.41 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 34c | 542.43$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.43 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 35c | 527.75$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.71 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 486$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.84 | 457 | 54.5%249 W · 208 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed ex-MANA eSports | 65c | 478$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.08 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…cddbbacked ex-MANA eSports | 66c | 455.06$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 133 | 71.4%95 W · 38 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 34c | 267.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed ex-MANA eSports | 65c | 234.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 220$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 35c | 202.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…6454backed ex-MANA eSports | 63c | 189.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 168.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 34c | 163.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 32.5%52 W · 108 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 142$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 271 | 56.8%154 W · 117 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 138.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 187 | 53.5%100 W · 87 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 38c | 131.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 408 | 57.1%233 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 38c | 129.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 422 | 55.7%235 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 34c | 126.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 309 | 39.2%121 W · 188 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 35c | 121.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 34c | 120.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 306 | 38.9%119 W · 187 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 34c | 97.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 220 | 37.3%82 W · 138 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 170 | 38.8%66 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…140dbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ed…8b66backed ex-MANA eSports | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…9fcfbacked ex-MANA eSports | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 44.1%116 W · 147 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 37c | 52.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 43c | 48.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 368 | 56.8%209 W · 159 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Alpha Dominion Nation | 32c | 46.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 39c | 45.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Alpha Dominion Nation | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoffsex-MANA eSports won
- Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winnerex-MANA eSports won
- Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winnerex-MANA eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.