Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf92e8642ed1835348ae7c2af2f7dcb6d1cafb5809940a053222d29c01a69d760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,916 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 70c | 2,222$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 29c | 1,981$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.89 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbc…c413backed No | 71c | 1,409$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,206$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.97 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 875.41$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.3 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 34c | 652.04$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.35 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 34c | 411.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.54 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 215.35$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 169.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 30c | 160$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 26c | 145.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 78c | 120.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…4e11backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 90.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed No | 64c | 84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 29c | 72.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 66c | 40.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 31c | 38.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 30.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 64c | 30.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 61c | 20.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…8319backed No | 71c | 18.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 69c | 15.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.