South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Belgrano vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf931a5c1f3de328f34fef34977bb305c96acc8715d57eb4a9843411662e6e245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x694d…9aadbacked Under | 0c | 31,529$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 60c | 10,746$6,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,445.09 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 40c | 2,800$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 57c | 2,184$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.19 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 1,851$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.25 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 40c | 1,757$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.7 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 40c | 1,275$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 64c | 704.72$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 37c | 301.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.05 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 38c | 173.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 40c | 168.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 158.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 53c | 105.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b0…2fcdbacked Over | 60c | 93.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…84cabacked Over | 44c | 82.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 40c | 70.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 57.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 49.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 43.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 40c | 40.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e6…5cb1backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ae…5c25backed Over | 38c | 26.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Under | 74c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…dbf8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 68c | 18.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Belgrano vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Belgrano vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-1.5)CA Belgrano won
- Spread: CA Tucumán (-1.5)CA Belgrano won
- Spread: CA Tucumán (-2.5)CA Belgrano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.