Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Kasatkina (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf93c8a83cf24b5cd3a5b5107267055aac6cdac4324da14e34b750d0ce8f3d739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Osaka, Kasatkina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kasatkina | 39c | 1,644$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.29 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Osaka | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Osaka | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 171 | 49.1%84 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Kasatkina | 43c | 822.14$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.85 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Kasatkina | 40c | 599.99$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.71 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Kasatkina | 46c | 435.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Kasatkina | 40c | 422.13$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Kasatkina | 38c | 412.07$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Osaka | 62c | 405$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.2 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Osaka | 54c | 385.87$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Osaka | 58c | 362$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.04 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Osaka | 59c | 254.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Kasatkina | 41c | 226.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Kasatkina | 40c | 207.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Osaka | 57c | 192.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…b1e1backed Osaka | 60c | 177.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x820a…ca12backed Osaka | 57c | 152.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kasatkina | 13c | 124.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Kasatkina | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kasatkina | 24c | 91.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Osaka | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Kasatkina | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0084…3478backed Osaka | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Osaka | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Osaka | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Osaka | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…1f9abacked Osaka | 64c | 51.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kasatkina | 41c | 42.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Osaka | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Kasatkina | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Kasatkina | 41c | 36.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Osaka | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Kasatkina (+1.5)this page
- Set 2 Winner: Kasatkina vs OsakaOsaka won
- Wimbledon WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi OsakaNaomi Osaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.