Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf944295550b1726411e09fe2d5fca928576465502d9cdceee2d907f9b2fad8ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $248,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaa1…3881backed Yes | 0c | 196,682$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.96 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,772$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 1c | 2,521$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 14c | 809.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 796.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 621.38$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 53c | 564.96$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.96 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 2c | 510$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed Yes | 28c | 422.87$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…9f35backed Yes | 15c | 331.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 39c | 274.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 241.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 16c | 213.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 28c | 210.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…86febacked Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 10c | 187.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 174.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 173.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 162.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…416ebacked Yes | 16c | 156.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 145.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked No | 75c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f6…af9dbacked No | 55c | 130.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 11c | 127.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 51c | 117.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 113$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 28c | 111.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 20c | 103.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 68c | 95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed Yes | 18c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…dac8backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 32.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…1eebbacked No | 67c | 31.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 67c | 30.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 63c | 26.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 22.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 72c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…f393backed Yes | 54c | 19.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or higher on February 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.