Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf94ec046ecad738a13c29500383d62e916341a985155b0a0d02fe8c93421bc16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 3,923$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…1fbfbacked No | 9c | 2,634$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 10c | 2,185$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.16 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…7872backed No | 3c | 438.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 293.7$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 8c | 284.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 235.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 48c | 219.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 726 | 66.3%481 W · 245 L | +34.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 199.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 17c | 189.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 7c | 178.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 171.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 168.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 56c | 158.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 77c | 154.9$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 73c | 149.05$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 142.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 13c | 140.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…47b6backed No | 9c | 137.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 132.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 131.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 80c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 247 | 68.8%170 W · 77 L | +25.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 53c | 119.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 113$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 111$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 795 | 63.5%505 W · 290 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 12c | 104.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 38c | 102.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 24c | 89.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 43c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 79.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 73.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 47c | 69.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 24c | 67.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 62.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 60c | 58.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 21c | 58.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 57.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 52.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 64c | 51.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 29c | 51.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 46.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 47c | 40.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 39.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 34.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 58c | 32.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,276 | 47.6%607 W · 669 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 25.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 24.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 170 | 45.3%77 W · 93 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 19.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 16.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 76c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 78c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.