Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on January 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf95a836e0d81aa63d5bc2251e4d9c291a6f62ba7e91869619559d3add20c8ae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 24c | 566.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 35c | 333.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a3…3af4backed No | 76c | 332$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 78cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed No | 20c | 321.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3786…c390backed Yes | 40c | 250.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…0169backed Yes | 70c | 188.36$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3074…0411backed No | 8c | 153.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…5fe1backed No | 67c | 146.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 18c | 128.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed No | 60c | 114.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…ac1dbacked Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 98.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…0bfabacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 60c | 77.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…cfd1backed Yes | 70c | 77.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked No | 60c | 66.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…96e6backed No | 61c | 58.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 42c | 56.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 40c | 50.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…d7fabacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 48.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55d…2c36backed No | 61c | 48.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed No | 30c | 40.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb79…9822backed Yes | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…57c7backed Yes | 69c | 31.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4216…72acbacked No | 52c | 30.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…ab1bbacked Yes | 70c | 28.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 23.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed Yes | 43c | 23.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Yes | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…81c4backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…667ebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…afcfbacked Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on January 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 39°C on January 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.