Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf967ec9ccbd02ab1879650b3aa3f2ac010166ad59377884db5c7872143f1e303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 5,945$2,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,191.93 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 19c | 4,678$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,799.17 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,639$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 29c | 1,055$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.93 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed No | 20c | 800$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.05 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 24c | 651.63$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.39 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 463.45$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.67 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 33c | 432.79$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.82 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 72c | 399.94$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked Yes | 5c | 218.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked No | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…a7debacked No | 72c | 199.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 21c | 185.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed No | 47c | 180.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 41c | 179.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 28c | 170.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 69c | 163.19$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 19c | 144.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 19c | 144.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 26c | 137.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 25c | 133.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 21c | 129.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.68 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 75c | 99.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Yes | 44c | 97.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Yes | 42c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Yes | 16c | 64.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked No | 45c | 63.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 52c | 63.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed No | 25c | 55.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 77c | 35.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 71c | 34.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked No | 48c | 31.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…66f3backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 71c | 14.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-08-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.