Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304c24ad9b3b6a126ac0303693ba1145434e7315bed7a95e84575434986c1649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 77c | 764.92$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.93 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 11c | 701.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…ef2bbacked Yes | 47c | 639.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 19c | 493.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 55c | 446.83$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 57c | 418.46$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Yes | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 53c | 396.72$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.46 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 47c | 393.53$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 53c | 384.6$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.76 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 381.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed No | 53c | 92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 62c | 64.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01bb…2c9cbacked Yes | 43c | 55.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 54c | 55.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 57c | 43.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 53c | 39.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 55c | 32.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8b…645cbacked Yes | 48c | 31.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 57c | 23.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…2602backed No | 55c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.