Stocks · resolved market
Will Rocket Lab dip to $44 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9714785c4f3cea4679796ba96de2a16f40e4eadded27f4080da1bec4f7561c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 57c | 486.05$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.16 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 61c | 328.39$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.59 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 251.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.95 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf688…ac81backed No | 28c | 70.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 25c | 68.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…4034backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x822a…861bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…252ebacked No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 45c | 23.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7548…8ef8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rocket Lab dip to $44 in November?this page
- Will Rocket Lab dip to $36 in November?No won
- Will Rocket Lab dip to $50 in November?Yes won
- Will Rocket Lab dip to $56 in November?Yes won
- Will Rocket Lab dip to $60 in November?Yes won
- Will Rocket Lab dip to $64 in November?Yes won
- Will Rocket Lab reach $68 in November?No won
- Will Rocket Lab reach $72 in November?No won
- Will Rocket Lab reach $76 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.