CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Lilmix (BO1) - Esplay Elite Gaming Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf989b7456e0089ae786412af69e6a8e0e0d8c0df5d57e894e7026f429f3b81f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Johnny Speedsof Johnny Speeds, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 45c | 3,408$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.3 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Johnny Speeds | 55c | 2,100$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed Johnny Speeds | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.99 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…44b7backed Johnny Speeds | 54c | 1,665$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.16 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Lilmix | 14c | 1,032$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lilmix | 45c | 966.46$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.9 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Lilmix | 31c | 813.91$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.94 | 217 | 37.3%81 W · 136 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lilmix | 29c | 641.55$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.47 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed Johnny Speeds | 74c | 523.05$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.05 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Johnny Speeds | 66c | 491.67$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.15 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Johnny Speeds | 53c | 399.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.21 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…d07ebacked Lilmix | 42c | 381.93$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Lilmix | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Lilmix | 48c | 249.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Lilmix | 41c | 242.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lilmix | 49c | 188.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afd…427ebacked Lilmix | 33c | 152.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Lilmix | 48c | 146.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 275 | 44%121 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Lilmix | 51c | 137.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Johnny Speeds | 70c | 113$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Lilmix | 42c | 112.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Lilmix | 44c | 104.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Lilmix | 44c | 86.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…5fafbacked Johnny Speeds | 62c | 81.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Johnny Speeds | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Lilmix | 32c | 76.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Lilmix | 38c | 57.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -14.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Lilmix | 24c | 54.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 406 | 52.2%212 W · 194 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…6ee4backed Johnny Speeds | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Johnny Speeds | 70c | 39.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lilmix | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Lilmix | 46c | 32.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Johnny Speeds | 78c | 29.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked Johnny Speeds | 55c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Johnny Speeds | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Lilmix | 53c | 26.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Johnny Speeds | 55c | 25.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 850 | 54.4%462 W · 388 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Johnny Speeds | 55c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.