Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf992d1baa9d93bca4d18c767a50612ee61fb746b8f6502dc052fe37912e9fdd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 3,527$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 6c | 599.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed Yes | 12c | 432.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 14c | 407.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9011…8330backed Yes | 6c | 375.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 4c | 366.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…cae3backed Yes | 5c | 241.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 12c | 215.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 198.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 189.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…489dbacked Yes | 10c | 182.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 177.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 10c | 174.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 16c | 154.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 13c | 149.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 9c | 149.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 7c | 149.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 11c | 140.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 131.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 118.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 80c | 108$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 14c | 107.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 17c | 88.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 78.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 75.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 17c | 61.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 79c | 26.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.