Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1615ae1e2035587cdfb19205d699c51dd5fad3c4e549aaa9ce854bf36fd74ddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 22c | 595.94$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 24c | 510.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.18 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 384.18$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 44c | 301.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.7 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 270$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 258.66$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 245.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 237.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.96 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 22c | 213.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 210.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 182.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 172.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 27c | 149.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 41c | 130.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 12c | 110.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 41c | 109.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 104.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 102.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 97.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 57c | 93.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 44c | 89.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 48c | 82.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 51c | 82.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 37c | 76.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 55c | 70.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 56c | 70.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 66c | 69.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 66.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 66.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 62.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 38c | 61.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 55.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 37c | 53.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 52c | 49.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 71c | 48.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 63c | 47.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 31c | 47.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 44c | 45.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 52c | 42.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 63c | 41.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 40.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…914bbacked Yes | 40c | 39.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…1a52backed No | 66c | 37.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 36.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 35.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 57c | 35.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 79c | 31.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 30.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…7d65backed No | 75c | 27.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 61c | 26.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 50c | 26.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 69c | 25.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 79c | 22.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 21.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 70c | 21.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked No | 62c | 18.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 15.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.