Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aa729dac523b3785688f33130b6b5ebd5e8afec2b91d8995be517a1271830cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,066$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 2,075$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 978.83$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.61 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 65c | 458.89$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.61 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 43c | 384.11$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.3 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 351.91$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 32c | 332.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 313.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 304.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 31c | 303.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 260$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 41c | 232.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 214.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 57c | 198.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 182$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 178.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 30c | 168.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 60c | 166.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 154.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 151.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 75c | 147.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 141.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 133$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 33c | 119.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 31c | 119.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 117.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 46c | 117.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…b36dbacked Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 37c | 108$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed Yes | 14c | 107.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 33c | 106.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 26c | 106.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 33c | 103.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 103.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 99.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 46c | 96.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 95.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 91.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 36c | 83.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 57c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 71c | 79.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 66c | 79.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 71c | 76.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 26c | 70.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 71c | 70.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 28c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 29c | 69.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 69.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 72c | 65.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…f1e2backed Yes | 32c | 61.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 34c | 60.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 25c | 59.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 58.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 26c | 56.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 64c | 55.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…914bbacked Yes | 35c | 54.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 20c | 52.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 52.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 23c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 49.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 71c | 49.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 49.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 47.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 32c | 45.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 72c | 44.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 44.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 43.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 48c | 41.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 29c | 41.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 27c | 40.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 72c | 37.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 56c | 35.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 64c | 35.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 72c | 31.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…8520backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 66c | 29.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…1fd6backed Yes | 38c | 29.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 35c | 29.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.